電気自動車（EV）バッテリー市場はリチウムイオンが主流、固体電池は力強い成長

The global electric vehicle (EV) battery market is experiencing impressive expansion, projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.1% during the forecast period, from USD 93.1 billion in 2025 to USD 182.4 billion by 2032. Driven by unprecedented EV adoption, technological innovation, and strong policy incentives in major economies, the sector is poised to become the backbone of the global clean mobility transition.

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Market Overview and Growth Outlook

Between 2019 and 2024, the EV battery market showed robust growth, increasing from approximately US$30-40 billion to approximately US$69.2 billion, despite supply chain disruptions and the COVID-19 recession. EV sales fell just 18% in 2020, highlighting resilience, compared to a 23% decline in the overall automotive market. Global installations are expected to reach 750 GWh by 2023, a 40% year-over-year increase, as battery pack prices fell from over US$200/kWh to US$149/kWh.

Looking ahead, supported by the US Inflation Control Act, Europe's Green Deal and the expansion of gigafactory production capacity in Asia, demand is expected to increase approximately sevenfold between 2025 and 2032. Battery prices are forecast to fall below US$80/kWh by 2026, allowing EVs to achieve cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles and accelerating mainstream adoption.

Key insights and trends

• Lithium-ion batteries will capture a 67.4% market share in 2024, powering 95% of EVs.
• Solid-state batteries are expected to grow the fastest, reaching US$6.3 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 49.4%.
• Mid-range 50-110kWh packs will account for 67.9% of the market share in 2024, with truck electrification driving rapid growth in packs over 300kWh.
• Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) account for over 70% of demand and are driving 95% of global battery growth.
• Passenger EVs will dominate at 17.3 million in 2024, but demand for trucks will surge by 75%.
• Asia-Pacific is leading the way, with China recording demand of 415 GWh in 2023, and North America seeing the fastest growth in annual demand at 45%.
• LFP chemicals will surge to 40% global market share by 2023, driven by mass adoption in China.

Growth Drivers

1. Global EV adoption surge

EV sales will exceed 20 million units in 2025, with battery demand reaching 950 GWh, a 25% increase from 2023. China continues to dominate, with the US and Europe experiencing 40%+ annual growth. Emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia report demand growth of 70%+, further bolstered by subsidies, emissions regulations, and affordable LFP batteries.

1. Policy incentives and next-generation chemistry

Government spending, including the US$369 billion allocation for the US IRA, European CO₂ targets, and Chinese subsidies, is supporting rapid expansion. At the same time, breakthroughs such as sodium-ion and solid-state batteries are reshaping performance benchmarks. LFP patent expirations have spurred global investment, including US$15.3 billion in Morocco's phosphate reserves, and recycling efforts have strengthened circular economy goals.

Market Constraints

• Supply chain vulnerabilities : Lithium prices surged six times from historical averages by 2023, and nickel volatility doubled input costs in 2022. Manufacturing overcapacity, projected to be 3.8 TWh compared to 1.9 TWh of demand by 2025, could lead to inefficiencies.
• Cost and infrastructure barriers : Despite declines, battery costs of USD 149/kWh remain restrictive in a price-sensitive market. Charging infrastructure is limited, with only 5 million public stations worldwide in 2024, and safety concerns over fire risk are inhibiting adoption.

opportunity

• Battery Recycling and the Circular Economy

Recycling is projected to grow at a CAGR of 28.3%, unlocking value from the recovery of cobalt, nickel, and lithium. EU and industry partnerships, including the LG-Derichebourg joint venture, are expanding black mass processing. Second-life applications in grid storage are expected to reach US$23.39 billion by 2030.

• Emerging chemistries and affordable EV models

Sodium-ion technology is already available in EVs in China , and affordable LFP-powered models priced under US$29,000 are expanding accessibility in markets like Brazil, India, and Vietnam. Combined with Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) solutions, these innovations are redefining value creation.

Regional Outlook

• North America : Driven by the IRA, Canada alone attracted US$31 billion in EV battery investment, with Honda, Stellantis, and Northvolt leading Gigafactory expansions. The US Department of Energy pledged US$1.7 billion for auto factory retrofits and US$43 million for next-generation research and development.
• Europe : Strict CO₂ regulations and the allocation of an 852 million euro innovation fund are driving the push for 400 GWh of production capacity by 2030. Germany leads the way with Tesla's 100 GWh Gigafactory Berlin, while France, the UK and Italy are expanding their domestic supply chains.
• Asia Pacific : China remains the global hub with 77% of global capacity (893 GWh in 2023). India's PLI-ACC scheme targets 50 GWh by 2026, and Indonesia is leveraging its nickel reserves to build Southeast Asia's first 40 GWh EV battery factory. Japan and South Korea maintain their strengths in advanced chemistry and exports.

Competitive environment

The EV battery market is highly consolidated, with CATL and BYD controlling nearly 60% of the market, followed by LG Energy Solutions, Panasonic, Samsung SDI, and SK-ON. European companies such as Northvolt and Saft are focused on sustainable manufacturing and recycling. US-based QuantumScape is leading solid-state innovation, and Redwood Materials is driving advances in recycling.

Main companies :

• CATL
• BYD
• LG Energy Solutions
• Panasonic Energy
• Samsung SDI
• SK On
• Carb
• Goshon High Tech
• EVE Energy
• Farasis Energy
• Sanwoda
• Quantumscape
• Redwood material

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